The iPhone was a Five-Year Overnight Success

The Verge writes up Tim Cook's CNBC comments:  

Apple CEO Tim Cook thinks it's only a matter of time before consumers come around to wanting the Apple Watch. Speaking with CNBC's Jim Cramer on Mad Money this evening, Cook compared public perception of his company's smartwatch to the original iPod and iPhone. The first iteration of each device drew heavy skepticism at first before being "viewed as an overnight success," as Cook put it.

Even after people around me started saying that the first (and second) iPhone was impressive, most of them added that they didn't personally need one. Amongst the people with whom I've discussed the Apple Watch over the last year, that's the prevailing view too. They were right about the iPhone in 2007-8, and they're right about the Apple Watch now.

"In a few years, we will look back and people will say, 'How could I have ever thought about not wearing this watch?'" he said. "Because it's doing so much for you. And then it will all of a sudden be an overnight success." Cook still very much believes in Apple's core vision of delivering products consumers didn't know they wanted. "We are going to give you things that you can’t live without," he added. "That you just don’t know you need today."

Amongst the people I know who own an Apple Watch this is already a common view. I've not worn a regular watch since, and while I know there are plenty of stories of early adopters who've tried it and ditched it, I literally don't know a single regular person who's done similarly.

Of course, while people had their doubts about the first iPhone, it was still largely seen as revolutionary to put a computer in your pocket. (People are still on the fence about the significance of the tablet, which is, at heart, a very large smartphone with less stellar sales performance.) So it's unclear whether Apple's overnight theory will hold true for the smartwatch.

I'd say the iPad is a smaller, simpler portable computer, rather than a big phone. Any doubts about the iPad's future should come from a concern that, for most people, a big phone will be all they need.

Similarly, the Apple Watch isn't just a smaller iPhone. My real questions: Can enough people be persuaded to spend $300 on a Watch in the short term, and what's Apple's eventual target price for it?